Through my own research, I believe that the Bitcoin price is predictable at the top of the bull market and the bottom of the bear market.
I studied the Bitcoin market value warning indicator, which fluctuates between -1.5 and 2.5. When the Bitcoin price is at the top of the bull market, the Bitcoin market value warning indicator also peaks, around 2.5. When the Bitcoin price was at the bottom of the bear market, the Bitcoin market value warning indicator was also at a low point, around -1.5. The following Bitcoin market capitalization warning chart illustrates this point.
This Bitcoin market capitalization early warning indicator is derived from Bitcoin’s predicted market capitalization, which is equal to the difference between the logarithm of Bitcoin’s market capitalization and the logarithm of Bitcoin’s predicted market capitalization. As can be seen from the following graph of Bitcoin market value and predicted market value, the market value fluctuates around the predicted value. The predicted value is a reasonable market value, which is in line with the theory that prices fluctuate around value.
